When Google begins to make multiple changes to its web tools and interface simultaneously, frankly, it makes me nervous. There has been a wave of activity in the last few months that has culminated in a slew of changes, launched in a very short time frame. They include:

• The ‘updated’ keyword tool was taken out of beta
• Google Instant was launched
• Search suggestion boxes became an official feature of the search interface

-       Google is currently making changes to reporting in AdWords

Google: Doing Good or Evil?

At #SMX East this year, search marketers were dealt a raw hand by Google when Baris Gultekin, Group Product Manager, Google AdWords, revealed that Google has done the unthinkable. The ‘updated’ and ‘improved’ AdWords Keyword Tool will now only provide keywords that Google deems ‘commercial’. Say what?! Marty Weintraub offers excellent insight and advice on this announcement in his R.I.P Google Keyword Tool. Long Live SEO! post.

Google has taken its monopolistic power and decided to squeeze some more cash from its AdWords cash cow. So much for the power of the long tail; why give advertisers diversified keyword opportunities when you can limit the keyword set to those that will drive increased revenue for Google. Hell, let’s throw in a bidding war while we’re at it.

Exhibit A

Simple economics dictates that if you limit supply, demand will increase, thus driving up cost. Similarly, limited keyword inventory in the Google AdWords tool will result in a larger number of advertisers bidding on the same keyword baskets. In the AdWords auction, bidding environment this could spell increased bidding as advertisers vie for top positions.

If the market ‘naturally’ increases its willingness to pay for a basket of keywords, it is the ‘natural’ direction of the market determining cost rather than Google artificially raising prices.

Exhibit B

Google Instant was launched in early September 2010, ruffling the feathers of the entire search marketing industry. A wave of speculation hit the blogosphere, conference schedules were altered and slots allotted to experts, surmising the impacts Google Instant may have on paid search, SEO and searcher behaviour. A month later, the impact remains unclear, as searchers no doubt become accustomed to this new search experience. However, in paid search, impressions are on an ominous upward trajectory.

Between August and September, there have been instances of significant MoM changes in impressions. Some examples highlight this:

Word on the street says that if a certain search query is displayed in the search bar for 3 seconds, it will be recorded as an impression. The massive increase in impression count indicated above shows the significance of this.

Which leads me to Quality Score (QS). With CTR being the key influencing factor of QS, such a sharp spike in impressions may cause CTR to plummet, thus driving down QS. Suddenly, with a lower QS, advertisers will find themselves having to bid higher to maintain the same ad rank and thus ad positioning on the SERPs.

Exhibit C

That all pervasive search suggestion box in the Google search interface now takes up so much real estate on the SERP, it is difficult not to be swayed by the suggestions, let alone ignore it.

Assuming it does impact search behaviour and searchers become reliant on it to drive their searches. Google is thus ever so subtly changing how people search, manipulating them to use the queries that Google suggests.

Inevitably the advertiser follows the searcher, but in order to do so, is then forced to bid on high volume, high competition, high cost search terms.

So much for the invisible hand of the Google search engine marketplace.